Using a sample of U.S. syndicated loans, I examine the impact of banks' sectoral specialization on credit supply in response to monetary policy shocks. First, I show that banks rebalance their portfolios towards their specialized sectors following an expansionary interest rate shock. After a 25 basis point rate reduction, banks increase credit to their sector of specialization by 4% more relative to the other sector. The effect peaks at 10 quarters, with results driven by easing periods. This result holds when controlling for sector-level opportunities and concurrent banks' market structure characteristics. Consistent with the notion that banks specialize in given sectors to leverage their informational advantage, I find, at the bank level, that lenders with more specialized portfolios display improved income performance and reduced loan delinquencies upon expansionary rate shocks. Finally, I document that industries that borrow more from specialized banks register higher debt growth in response to monetary easing shocks. I interpret my results through a model where banks have heterogeneous monitoring technologies across sectors, generating higher lending and responsiveness to rate change in the industry of specialization. My findings emphasize the dual effect of bank sectoral specialization. Specialized banks show heightened responsiveness to monetary policy by increasing credit within their specialized sector and qualitatively align with a redirection of loans toward high-quality projects.
Presented at: Finance Seminar – Pompeu Fabra; CREi Macro Lunch Seminar – Pompeu Fabra; BGSE Ph.D. Jamboree; SAsCa PhD Conference; NSE Workshop; MadBar Workshop; IWFAS 2023; UA Eco Junior Workshop: CREi International Lunch Seminar – Pompeu Fabra; SAEe 2023 (scheduled), Econometric Society Winter Meeting 2023 (scheduled)
This paper investigates the relationship between customer acquisition, debt structure, and firm dynamics in the US. Using a sample of publicly listed firms, we find that firms allocating significant resources to attract customers have a debt composition tilted towards unsecured credit. In addition, firms with higher fractions of customer expenses issue higher amounts of unsecured debt relative to secured debt when raising additional funding. We propose and test a novel mechanism in which firms with higher customer expenses can leverage their going-concern value to boost their debt capacity through unsecured borrowing. To rationalize our empirical results, we developed a theory of firm dynamics with customer capital and uncollateralized debt to study the joint dynamics of firms’ customer base and their borrowing.
Presented at: BGSE Ph.D. Jamboree 2021
Housing and Banking Nexus (Joint with Francisco Amaral) draft available soon
Motivated by the cross-sectional variation in house price and quality, and bank exposure to housing markets, we examine the relationship between housing collateral value uncertainty, loan securitization and its implication for banks’ portfolio decisions. We first document that counties exposed to higher collateral value uncertainty experience lower origination, securitization, loan-to-income ratios, and higher spreads. We then explore the underlying mechanisms and show that bank exposure to collateral value uncertainty is negatively related to foreclosure discounts and mortgage-backed security, indicating higher potential liquidity concerns. As such, bank exposure to higher collateral uncertainty crowds out commercial loans. These observations highlight the importance of liquidity constraints as a channel through which house price risk affects lending activity.
Bank's productivity and firms' outcomes work in progress
This paper studies the implications of banks’ productivity on lending relationships. I document how banks’ ability to generate revenues over their input of productions affects banks’ security design and its implications for firms’ investment exploiting a sample of US syndicated loans over the period of 1994-2020. Firms that match with productive banks face a steeper pricing function for a given level of borrower risk, which is associated with a premium for matching with productive banks as these lenders can allocate more funds for riskier borrowers. Small firms that match with productive banks invest more and grow faster. At the bank level, I document that this lending behaviour is not associated with higher bank risk-exposure, but instead is related to better screening technology and information gathering.
Presented at: Finance Seminar – Pompeu Fabra